California Special Election: Schwarzenegger Rolls the Dice

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced a Nov. 8 special election for several ballot measures, including propositions to cap the growth of state spending and another to take districting out of the hands of legislatures.

A Ballotwatch report published the Initiative & Referendum Institute at USC Law offers a detailed description of the eight propositions that have qualified for the ballot or have submitted petitions. The report also offers preliminary polling and history of special elections in California. It includes information on voter turnout and former special elections called by former Govs. Ronald Reagan and Pete Wilson.

Since he took office, Schwarzenegger has threatened to take his reform agenda to the voters if the legislature won’t cut a deal, said John Matsusaka, a USC professor and president of the Initiative & Referendum Institute at USC. “We’re about to find if Schwarzenegger can govern without the legislature,” he added.

Of the eight propositions that may appear on the ballot, five are sponsored by or linked to Schwarzenegger. The ballot issues include abortion, apportionment, drug prices, electricity regulation, state spending limits, teacher tenure and union dues. Seven of the eight potential measures are likely to become major battlegrounds between Schwarzenegger and public sector unions.

Schwarzenegger is sponsoring three measures as part of his reform agenda, including measures on reapportionment, state spending limits and teacher tenure. Citizens to Save California has raised $8.2 million, including $1.3 million from Gov. Schwarzenegger’s California Recovery Team, for the campaign. The group reports $2 million cash on hand.

Four measures are sponsored by Schwarzenegger allies, or are targeted at the governor by his opponents. He has not taken official positions on these measures yet. These initiatives include electric utility regulation, two measures on prescription drug discounts and a measure that forbids union dues to be used for political purpose.

Completely unrelated to the governor’s reform agenda and battle with the unions is an abortion measure sponsored by right to life activists. This measure is a wild card, said Matsusaka, much like the marriage amendments in the 2004 presidential elections, abortion may bring single issue voters to the polls whose positions on the other initiatives are hard to predict.

To read the full report, please go to: http://iandrinstitute.org/ballotwatch.htm